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THE ROLE OF LEADERSHIP DURING AN ECONOMIC CRISIS

2009-06-25T12:05:52+02:00

THE ROLE OF LEADERSHIP DURING AN ECONOMIC CRISIS

The reason for this text was an invitation I received from a Russian University of Russia for a series of lectures on the 'Confrontation of challenges of the global financial crisis’. During my research for the aforementioned lectures I read an excerpt from the work of Dante that refers to the way of confronting challenges presented to human life. According to Dante, “the worst parts of hell are kept for those that during difficult times remain neutral". 'The same can be said of leaders during an economic crisis. I am personally a fan of the theory that leaders are made rather than born and especially convert due to circumstances (situational or contingency theory of leadership). General Schwarzkopf, one of the leading Generals of the American Army, says that the 'most important leaders are ordinary people who have handled extraordinary conditions". Following on the foundations set by the General Schwarzkopf, I maintain that the conditions of an economic crisis can nurture leaders.

During an economic crisis, the executives of businesses are tested to the maximum. Most executives show signs of self-preservation and thus remain riveted. Some executives see difficult conditions as a challenge and therefore manifest their leadership skills. It is now widely accepted that we are in the midst of a global economic recession which affects everyone and everything. In most businesses discussions between executives surround issues related to cost reductions and restructuring. On the other hand, businesses run by managers with clear objectives and vision discussions are concentrated on increasing sales by creating more value from existing products and services. This theory is supported by empirical studies conducted by McKinsey and Accenture during the economic recession of 1990-91.

It is obvious that during these uncertain times, employees look for strong leadership, guidance and a sense of confidence. According to a recent survey carried out by academics from Harvard University (Kouzes and Posner, HBR January 2009), one of the most important characteristics that employees seek in their leaders is perspicacity and vision. The problem is that because of the economic crisis, most executives suffer from anxiety and are therefore unable to plan for the long term and to identify ways out of the crisis, limiting themselves to 'protect' their position.

The conditions prevailing during an economic crisis are, according to researchers, like an intensive training program that unfortunately very few can cope with. Those that will withstand pressure and emerge winners will be recognised as the new leaders. Executives must continually monitor developments and act immediately, rather than remain inactive.

Furthermore, successful executives are those that showed proper patience and perseverance and did not abandon their objectives simply because conditions were not favourable. Researcher Laura Lopez argues that now is the time for the emergence of new leaders of the scope of Steven Jobbs, Michael Dell and Bill Gates. The few that will survive and enhance their skills despite the difficulties will gain the trust and admiration of their colleagues and thus be able to lead their businesses. Let us not forget that according to Peter Drucker, the only commonly accepted definition of a leader is "someone who has supporters and the success of a leader is reflected in his supporters." Thus, according to the above analysis, despite the negative consequences of the economic crisis, it is time for the emergence of new leaders and certainly not the time for simple self-preservation and neutrality on behalf of the executives.

Yangos Hadjiyannis LL.B(Nott), PGDMS, LL.M (Cantab)

Lecturer in Marketing Management and Executive Skills

THE PROBLEM OF SEASONALITY IN CYPRUS' TOURISM

2009-06-25T12:03:59+02:00

The problem of seasonality in the tourism of Cyprus is growing

One of the major problems facing the tourism industry in Cyprus is the problem of seasonality. The period of high tourist traffic runs from April to October with a peak in July and August. The over-concentration of foreign visitors over the summer season implies the non-optimal use of capacity of tourism businesses during the year and obstacles to the further development of the tourism industry of Cyprus. Therefore there is a need for the extension of the aforementioned period.

The problem of seasonality, may to some extent, be dealt with different forms of tourism such as: rural tourism, sports tourism, cultural tourism, religious tourism, spa tourism, etc. Incentives such as price differentiation are essential in reducing the problem. Some steps have already been made by the relevant administrative bodies. However the number of arrivals for the period of low tourist traffic has decreased by 30% compared with 1996.

In an effort to mitigate seasonality, identification of the country of origin of foreign visitors for each season of the year, investigation of the profile of these tourists (eg age, desires, preferences) and therefore identification of target markets for the period of low tourist traffic, has to be made. Marketing for example could target elderly people who have the ability to travel at any given time.

After processing the data for the period 1996-2006 using the Seasonal Decomposition analysis method, means of SPSS, it results that during the period 1996-2006 foreign visitors from Great Britain, Greece, Italy, Russia, the Middle East showed a preference for the month of August and from Ireland and Northern European countries showed a preference for the month of July. Foreign visitors from Germany and Switzerland showed a preference for the month of October, while the French for April. Germany, Greece and France seem like good target markets in the effort for enhancing the tourist traffic during the period of low seasonality. At the same time the administrative bodies concerned should focus on high priority markets such as Great Britain and Russia.

The diversification strategy of the''product mix''may in fact be closely linked with the strategy of market diversification. This is why it is important to find different target markets. In an effort to reduce the problem of seasonality systematic market research has to be carried out for all target markets and appropriate marketing plans tailored to the characteristics of each market.

In Cyprus, the Cyprus Tourism Organisation has come to comprehend the problems associated with seasonality and as such the most of the efforts for attracting visitors in the past few years have focused on new ways to address the issue. One example is ‘Agrotourism’ which offers the opportunity to visitors to experience the ‘true Cyprus’, especially during off-peak seasons and to mingle with the local inhabitants. Moreover, packages for long stay are offered at a very attractive price. This venture has been a great success but more has to be done in order to avoid dependence on seasonality.

Natasa Kapetaniou

Lecturer in Marketing Management

CIM

MANAGEMENT BY OBJECTIVES

2009-06-25T12:03:09+02:00

Management By Objectives (MBO): 'An objective system for evaluating performance of staff

The design of a system for the evaluation of personnel performance is one of the main activities of a human resources department within an organization. It is very important to have an objective, fair and credible performance appraisal system, which implies achieving objectives. Objectivity is a key component of an effective evaluation system.

This system differs from the others because it is based on objective criteria and does not allow the use of subjective measurements. MBO as a system requires the evaluation of staff based on achievement of predetermined objectives, which are co-decided by the staff and their immediate superior.

The three main features (procedures) of the system are:

1. The existence of targets - a process for setting targets: In addition to the implementation of the 'SMART test', personal objectives must be identified with the objectives of the department to which the person concerned belongs, which in turn identify with the goals of the whole organization. Thus, when at the end of the prescribed period in which the goal must be achieved, performance evaluation takes place and any weaknesses as well as training needs of the individual are identified, we will know that the training that follows will actually be constructive.

2. Participation of the assessed individual in the process of defining its own objectives: Personal goals must be the product of discussion and exchange of views between the individual in question and his immediate superior. During the process of targeting, the head is responsible for creating the right conditions and the right climate which assists the free exchange of views and promotes equality.

3. The objective feedback: The individual assessed has to be given objective feedback in order to know whether and to what extent the objectives were attained. This will help him grow continuously, since he will have a clear idea as to where he is headed and what is required of him in the future.

Various studies have shown that this system is effective, if fully implemented. Its full implementation requires the full implementation of the above 3 processes. The key to their implementation is the top level management of the organization: The greater the support on behalf of the management of the organization, the more efficient becomes the implementation of each process.

To check the effectiveness of the MBO system in an organization, two key and interrelated factors should be analyzed. The first has to do with increasing the efficiency and productivity of staff, and the second with increasing employee satisfaction in relation to their jobs. These factors should be examined not only in each process individually but also in terms of support by the management of the organization.

Once these factors are examined the management should analyse the results and constantly readjust the system of implementing objectives. Objectives that may now appear challenging and motivating may lose their drive over the period of time. It is thus imperative to monitor the system closely and to make the necessary corrections where necessary, always in accordance with the desires and feelings of the employees.

Marios Charalambides

Lecturer in Economics and Business Organisation

The Cyprus Institute of Marketing

MARKETOLOGY

2009-06-23T08:47:42+02:00

MARKETOLOGY

Theo Hadjiyannis B.Sc, M.Sc, FCIM

Director - General, The Cyprus Institute of Marketing

The global interpretation of Marketing, which is of American origin and was clarified immediately after the Second World War, includes all procedures within and outside the company with the aim of increasing profit. This is a very broad interpretation that also includes the internal workings of a business, for example, industrial relations in the workplace which is something that no one previously considered as part of the Marketing and that is very important. If there are no good and harmonious working relationships between the members of a company and if the administrative staff is in constant conflict with the management, then this reality is well evident to the consumer as well. The final product or service will be inferior with respect to other competing products, because of this controversy. The biggest problem that large businesses face, especially in Cyprus, is that different components fail to coordinate with each other. This difficulty is always counterproductive, damages the company and affects the final product. The term “product” does not refer only to tangible products. Customer service and after-sales service are also products, which is something of poor quality here in Cyprus. This problem stems from poor coordination between departments of a business and thus bad marketing planning. In Cyprus, a classic example of the aforementioned problem is car dealerships. When buying a car, most people expect the same kind of treatment similar to that experienced during the negotiations to close the deal. Therefore, the product is not only the car but customer service and after-sales service are an integral part of the whole experience.

Businesses must understand that Marketology is an umbrella of procedures and that many other business activities, such as sales, are part of this umbrella. Therefore, if someone is Marketing Manager then he is also Sales Manager and responsible for distribution and advertising. The 'mosaic' we call Marketing consists of the above named sections and others such as market research, market competitiveness and public relations, the well-known PR.

Market research and market competitiveness along with international developments constitute the out-of-the-business side of marketology. For example, the recent devaluation of the sterling pound brought the economic crisis on the doorstep of our hoteliers. Hotel owners are not responsible for the devaluation of the sterling pound and therefore these problems are considered exogenous. The economic crisis in the U.S. has nothing to do with hoteliers in Cyprus or restaurateurs who rely on tourism. But at the end of the day, whatever affects us and we have no power of control over it is considered to be an external factor and part of marketology.

It is obvious that businesses without marketing neither advance nor consolidate. We are part of the 'global village' and thus we have no choice but to give the required importance to the role of marketing in line with the theory of marketology. In 1929, the crisis plaguing the U.S. had not affected the Far East or the Mediterranean, since those areas were isolated from the international spectrum. Today, we are all passengers in the same boat and we all face the same problems. The business people of Cyprus must understand that without a comprehensive implementation of marketology they can not move forward with long-term forecasts and expansion plans. Marketology therefore measures the heartbeat of the market, and this very same heartbeat determines the present and the future of business and economic progress.

Uwe Tännler als Präsident von Swiss Marketing bestätigt

2009-06-15T21:01:24+02:00

Uwe Tännler als Präsident von Swiss Marketing bestätigt

Swiss Marketing (SMC) setzt seinen Erfolgskurs fort. Zentralpräsident Uwe Tännler ist von den Delegierten des grössten Schweizer Berufsverbandes für Marketingfachleute für weitere drei Jahre im Amt bestätigt worden, ebenso der bisherige Zentralvorstand. Neu ins oberste Führungsgremium von Swiss Marketing gewählt wurden Tanja Doris Levine (Ressort Clubs, Netzwerk, Dienstleistungen Region Westschweiz) und Simon Hubacher (Ressort PR & Kommunikation).

Der Verband für Marketing- und Verkaufsfachleute traf sich am 5. Juni 2009 auf dem Jungfraujoch zu seiner Delegiertenversammlung. Gute Aussichten vermochte Präsident Uwe Tännler im Hinblick auf das Verbandsleben aufzuzeigen. Der grösste schweizerische Marketing-Berufsverband mit rund 3'000 Fach- und Führungskräften schreitet zuversichtlich in die Zukunft. Nationale Partnerschaften und Sponsoring ermöglichten 2008 zusätzliche Aktivitäten wie die Nr.1-Kampagne und sichern die Finanzen der Nonprofit-Organisation. Der Schweizerische Marketing-Tag mit Verleihung der Marketing-Trophy im KKL Luzern hat sich inzwischen als bedeutendster Marketingevent der Schweiz etabliert.

Neue Berufsprüfungen
Meilensteine wurden auch im Prüfungswesen erzielt. Zusammen mit der MarKom-Zulassungsprüfungen und den eidg. dipl. Marketingleitern wickelt Swiss Marketing (SMC) nun alle wichtigen Verkaufs- und Marketingprüfungen ab.

Der Verband setzt sich zudem für die internationale Anerkennung des Berufsstandes ein und hat sich deshalb beim EMC (European Marketing Confederation) angeschlossen und die europäische Akkreditierung initiiert.

Zentralvorstand jetzt komplett
Zentralpräsident Uwe Tännler wurde von den Delegierten des grössten Schweizer Berufsverbandes für Marketingfachleute an der diesjährigen Delegiertenversammlung für weitere drei Jahre im Amt bestätigt, ebenso der bisherige Zentralvorstand.

Erstmals ins neunköpfige Führungsgremium von Swiss Marketing gewählt wurden Tanja Doris Levine (Ressort Clubs, Netzwerk, Dienstleistungen Region Westschweiz) und Simon Hubacher (Ressort PR & Kommunikation).

Schweizerischen Marketing-Tag 2010

2009-06-15T20:57:31+02:00

Wir freuen uns, bereits heute das Thema zum Schweizerischen Marketing-Tag 2010 bekannt zu geben.

Hauptsache Emotionen? - das gefühlte Marketing.

Moderne Konsumenten begehren selten Produkte oder Dienstleistungen um Ihrer selbst willen; was für viele Menschen letztendlich wichtig ist, sind die Werte, die Marken ihnen vermitteln, die emotionalen Zustände.

Die Fragen lauten: Welche Emotionen sind für die Konsumenten wichtig und relevant? Welches sind die individuellen Erfahrungen? Welche Bedeutung hat der kulturelle Kontext? Ist B2B auch emotional? Was bietet die Marke dem Konsumenten in seinem Wertekonstrukt?

Wenn Sie das verstehen, können Sie die richtigen Signale für Ihre Leistungen setzen, die überzeugen und richtig berühren. Dadurch schaffen Sie eine inspirierende, begehrenswerte Marke.

Sind Sie bereit für mehr Emotionen zum Erfolg? Dann merken Sie sich dieses Datum jetzt schon vor: 9. März 2010.

Impressionen zum Schweizerischen Marketing-Tag 09

Green Business in France

2009-06-10T11:25:04+02:00

Green Business in France in a snapshot ? A little background first…

During the G20 summit in London, Nicolas Sarkozy’s posture – quite different from his initial position that France’s problem was that it was not taking enough risks or borrowing enough along US or British lines - changed, as he pushed for reforms of the current financial system based on the French model of high social protection and cautious banks.

This "moral" capitalism has gained strong public support in France, where the financial crisis has seen record public support for strikes and street demonstrations, a rise in extreme protests such as taking bosses hostage, and a surge of support for the left.

How has this changed the business context ?

Society and workers want to participate in creating a better, fairer, more sustainable world and expect their employer’s brand to encompass this aim.

Climate change and the environment are at the top of the socio-political agenda.

This second point is reinforced by the recent and piece by piece arrival of the pioneering Grenelle laws that have created an atmosphere of anticipation and contained panic as French companies are trying to anticipate the new environmental laws that will take effect at the end of this year.

The Grenelle Environment Project, launched in June 2007, is a national conference on the environment sponsored by Jean Louis Borloo, which aims to launch an ecological revolution in France and to create favourable conditions for the emergence of a new French model of environment protection.

The government and representatives of the general public have met jointly for the first time for the purpose of mapping out a route that will benefit the ecosystem and allow sustainable business development.

So great news for us, as Grenelle working groups were charged with addressing the following subjects :

combat climate change and control the demand for energy;
preserve biodiversity and natural resources;
create an environment that is beneficial to human health;
adopt sustainable methods of production and consumption;
construct an ecological democracy; and
promote ecological methods of development that encourage employment and promote competition.

How is this impacting French companies ? To give but a couple if examples ;

- Legal entities with more than 50 employees or agents must prepare a carbon energy report covering water, waste and transport within three to five years.

- ‘Energy category’ labelling (with emission-based categories) will be extended to all high-consumption electrical devices

- A trame verte ('green web') or ecological network linking green-belt areas will be established to promote the circulation of plants and animals. Regulation of light pollution will be established and a plan for the conservation and restoration within five years of 131 endagered species will be implemented.

- Obligatory carbon labelling for mass consumption products by 2011.

- Inversion of the charge of proof : for public decisions susceptible of having a significant impact on the environment, decision procedures will be revised to promote environmentally sound solutions. Companies will have to prove that they have chosen the best environmental option possible.

It is crucial at this time that politicians take environmental considerations into account in their economic stimulus packages.

One of the first examples of public policy to result from the Grenelle is the bonus-malus system for the purchase of new vehicles. The principle is simple and aims to compensate, via a bonus (from 200€ to up to 5000€ for electric vehicles), the purchase of cars with reduced co2 emissions (less than 130g co2 / Km). On the other hand, those who opt for more polluting vehicles are penalised via a malus. As such, the malus’ of the latter finance the bonus’ of the prior.

If, in addition to buying a less polluting vehicle, car owners bring their old car (more than 15 years) to the scrap yard, they are entitled to an additional “super bonus” of 300€ - which has been increased to 1000€ in the context of the economic stimulus plan.

As for the social considerations of green business, with the Global economic meltdown in full swing there is a very real danger that responsible business practices move to the bottom of the to-do-list. With more and more companies laying off people and most employers severely tightening their belts, there is a risk that corporate responsibility will be considered a favourable action rather than a business imperative.

It is my belief that responsible business practice, particularly in the workplace, is more important than ever if businesses are to find a way to navigate through the tough times ahead and be fit for the future. The current crisis offers an opportunity to rethink workplace design and practices to better align them with the new knowledge era and the expectations of the workforce and the societies in which they live.

And as for the consumers…

The global financial crisis has comforted French consumers in their long-standing mistrust of free markets, capitalism and companies in general. Consumer confidence in companies is down 24 points from last year and is, at 37%, at its lowest point since we started our survey 5 years ago.

Low consumer trust and an abundance of green marketing claims are pushing French consumers to seek proofs. This, coupled with the belief of many French consumers that their environmental efforts will only have an impact if companies do the same, is reshaping green business.

This said, 90% of French people see the current economic crisis as an opportunity to revise our lifestyle and consumption habits.

From our perspective, consumers are gaining in power. Far from being able to impose products and artificial desires on consumers, companies are now obliged to actively listen to their consumers (a changing and definitely greener consumer as far as we’re concerned - For 75% of French people, sustainable development is a necessity).

And as with every market, consumer expectations, along with economic pressure, are fuelling the drive for green business. In France consumers are pushing companies a step further than sustainable products and services to sustainable business models.

It’s exciting times for us as we accompany companies in the shift from sustainable products and services to sustainable business models.

If you want to find out more, an practice your French… you can find the full results of our annual survey on our blog : http://www.blog-ethicity.net/share/docs/Enquete_Ethicity_2009_synthese.pdf

Elizabeth Pastore-Reiss

President Founder ETHICITY

This article was written to appear in Business Briefing, a client magazine published by the UK law firm, Dickinson Dees www.dickinson-dees.com.

Que restera-t-il du luxe après la crise ?

2009-06-01T19:30:07+02:00

Pendant près de deux ans, les membres des Mardis du Luxembourg - un think tank informel et parisien - ont réfléchi sur le concept de luxe, sans nécessairement s'accorder sur les conclusions de leurs recherches personnelles.

Avant d'aborder une nouvelle thématique, ils ont décidé de publier une série de papiers volontairement très courts, répondant à une même et dernière question : Que restera-t-il du luxe après la crise ?

Donc, que restera-t-il du luxe après la crise actuelle ?

Pas grand chose, aurais-je tendance à dire ... vous reconnaissez mon goût pour l'inutile et le superfétatoire ! Cela étant, en affirmant "pas grand chose", je ne formule pas un souhait : j'affirme une conviction, ce qui est quelque peu différent.

Reste à le démontrer.

Démonstration en deux temps : la crise, le luxe. Et puis le solde.

Crise (s)

En ce qui concerne la crise, la question est simple : quelle crise ?

Il ne s'agit pas d'une pirouette, mais d'une réelle question ...

La crise économique liée à la mauvaise gestion du crédit par les banques : subprimes, pertes abyssales, etc.

Avec évidemment les dégâts collatéraux qui s'en suivent : récession et fermetures d'usines, licenciements à gogo - et le plus souvent abusifs, par précaution et surtout pour ne pas laisser perdre une si belle occasion ...

Résultat : jamais la Banque de France n'a enregistré autant de dossiers de surendettement que cette année, jamais les sociétés de crédit n'ont constaté de défaillances dans les remboursements ... jamais les Français ne sont sentis si pauvres !

La crise liée au passage à l'euro, ensuite.

Ah ! Il a bon dos, l'euro : le pouvoir d'achat n'a pas vraiment souffert du passage à l'euro, et c'est vrai ... mais !

Car il y a un "mais", et de taille !

Le prix des biens durables (téléviseurs, ordinateurs, etc.) a considérablement chuté ... et celui des produits alimentaires tout aussi considérablement augmenté : plus de 6% pour la seule année 2001 ! Et si l'on ajoute également plus de 6% pour 2008, on réalise que le passage à l'euro a surtout profité à ceux capables de s'acheter de superbes écrans plasmas ... pas à tout le monde.

La crise qui secoue notre pays - et la majorité des pays occidentaux - depuis 1980, enfin.

Certes, le niveau de vie des Français ne s'est jamais si bien porté, tout comme leur pouvoir d'achat ! Sauf que pouvoir d'achat ou niveau de vie moyens ne signifient rien : les revenus salariaux se dégradent d'année en année, largement compensés pour certains, par les revenus tirés du capital.

Encore faut-il avoir les moyens d'investir ...

En 30 ans, en 8 ans, en 1 an - selon les crises que l'on adresse -, toujours le même constat : les écarts entre les Français les plus pauvres et les plus riches se creusent, inéluctablement.

Est-ce le problème des industriels du luxe ? Eux qui ne vendent qu'aux riches ?

C'est ce dont il nous faut maintenant parler ; mais auparavant, un petit aparté (sociétal) sur le concept même de luxe.

Luxe(s)

Peut-être pour le luxe devrait-on poser la même question que pour la crise : le luxe, quel luxe ?

Il y a le luxe des sacs Vuitton et des montres Rolex - le luxe de publicitaires comme Jacques Séguéla qui affirmait : "Si à cinquante ans on n'a pas de Rolex, on a quand même a raté sa vie".

Et puis, il y a le "vrai" luxe, celui des Français qui n'ont pas les moyens - ou simplement l'envie - de débourser au minimum 4000 euros pour une tocante.

Pour comprendre ce que recouvre pour ces derniers le concept de luxe, je me suis promené au sein de la blogosphère, sur des blogs de simples consommatrices, de voyageurs, etc. - des blogs souvent inclassables, peignant la vie au quotidien.

L'on y apprend que le "vrai" luxe n'est ni ostentatoire, ni même cher ... en fait, il n'a pas de prix : le "vrai" luxe n'est pas marchand !

C'est la santé, comme le souligne Désire, qui soufre de la maladie de Crohn : "En fait, je constate que le vrai luxe dans une vie, c'est la santé ». Ce qui n'est pas sans évoquer une récente campagne de publicité des hypermarchés Leclerc, clamant : "Avec l'augmentation des prix des médicaments, soigner un rhume sera bientôt un luxe".

Le "vrai" luxe n'est que relatif - et sans doute est-ce pour cela que le terme apparaît si fréquemment dans les blogs de voyage : pour En route pour le pays d'Oz, le luxe suprême en Tasmanie, ce seront ... des "douches chaudes en bord de plage" ; et pour Mylène & Simon, "la chance de dormir dans des refuges chauffés au bois a toutes les nuits" chez les Inuits.

Et plus de chez nous, le "vrai" luxe se nichera dans des détails de la vie de tous les jours.

Pour Maman Mercredie, ce sera ... prendre une douche : "Je me suis offert tout un luxe aujourd'hui ... J'ai profité du fait que Bébélou faisait sa sieste pour aller prendre une douche ... seule".

Et pour Toujours dimanche, ce sera même ... de ne rien faire : "s'offrir le luxe, le temps que dure un café, de rien faire, de rien décider".

Si l'on tentait de déceler un plus petit dénominateur commun entre tous ces conceptions du luxe - celui de Séguéla, Désire ou Toujours dimanche - sans doute faudrait-il le chercher dans sa rareté, son inaccessibilité.

Inaccessibilité absolue de la santé pour un malade comme Désire, et des montres Rolex pour la grande majorité des Français, en raison de la barrière artificielle - mais bien réelle, néanmoins - des prix.

Inaccessibilité relative d'un instant de calme - d'un petit bonheur, d'un plaisir simple : le luxe devient accessible à tous ... sauf peut-être aux plus riches, à ceux qui courent sans cesse et n'ont pas les moyens de faire une pause à regarder un coucher de soleil !

La vision la plus couramment partagée du luxe semble bien celle d'un instant privilégié - extrêmement personnel - et surtout non marchand : le luxe du Comité Colbert - qui regroupe les principaux acteurs du secteur - apparaît plus comme une exception - très lucrative, certes, mais une exception cependant.

Pour solde de tout compte

Le luxe - des marques de luxe - ne correspond donc pas aux attentes de la grande majorité des Français ... qui ne sont pas leurs clients : est-ce si grave ?

On serait tenté de répondre "non" : peu importe que les Français qui n'ont pas (ou plus) les moyens de se payer des produits de luxe - du fait de la (des) crise(s), notamment - présentent d'autres aspirations en matière de luxe.

Sauf que l'on ne construit pas toute une industrie sur une niche.

L'industrie du luxe n'existe aujourd'hui encore que parce qu'elle a su élargir sa base de clientèle.

Car à l'origine, le luxe constituait plutôt un artisanat - ultra sophistiqué, proposant des produits de bien meilleure qualité que la grande majorité des fabricants œuvrant sur les mêmes créneaux.

Ce qui justifiait naturellement de larges écarts de prix, comme celui d'une malle d'une extrême résistance, d'une montre d'une extrême précision ... jusqu'à l'apparition des mécanismes à quartz !

Jusqu'à ce que les entreprises - tous secteurs, tous niveaux de prix confondus - cessent de vendre des produits pour commercialiser des signes de reconnaissance sociale : c'est le début du post-modernisme, qu'analysera Jean Baudrillard dans La Société de consommation.

La fonction publicitaire glissera alors de la qualification des produits (montres précises, voitures sportives, séjours hôteliers confortables, etc.) à celle de leurs possesseurs : peu importent l'objet ou le service, seul compte celui que les achète.

C'est en ce sens que "si à cinquante ans on n'a pas de Rolex, on a quand même a raté sa vie".

L'ultra sophistication originelle ne disparaîtra pas pour autant pour les Hermès, Vuitton, Rolex ; mais de plus en plus, la distinction conférée par leur possession l'emportera sur l'utilisation - du moins comme motivation d'achat.

Dans ce dernier quart du vingtième siècle qui sera celui du paraître, le luxe trouvera naturellement les ferments de son élargissement : les objets ayant désormais pour fonction d'affirmer qui nous sommes, quoi de plus naturel que de vouloir se procurer ceux qui donneront de nous la meilleure image qui soit.

Et comme ce n'est plus la (seule) qualité qui compte, le marketing du luxe va devenir le modèle marketing par excellence.

C'était au siècle dernier ...

Aujourd'hui, sans doute parce que les Français ont goutté au plaisir d'être à nouveau eux-mêmes, notamment en s'exprimant librement sur la toile ; sans doute également parce leurs poches se révèlent de plus en plus vides ; le grand retour des valeurs liées à l'être sonne le glas du paraître.

Le grand luxe d'un cadre surmené, ce n'est plus d'agiter ostentatoirement une montre "Bling Bling" aux yeux de ses collègues, mais de rêvasser avec sa famille en regardant les étoiles, un soir de printemps.

De prendre un verre à la terrasse d'un café - de ne rien faire.

Le luxe va pouvoir renouer avec ses racines, redevenir un artisanat de la perfection.

L'industrie du luxe est morte : vive le luxe !

Le vrai.

Usage creates innovation: future is local

2009-06-01T18:59:45+02:00

Globalization is only a technician's point of view - at least an industrial necessity. But certainly not a consumer need. An usually widespread idea is that tomorrow, life will be "standardized" all around the world because technology will be "standardized": we'll use the same computers, the same mp3 players, etc. we'll become identical from London to San Francisco and from Berlin to Atlanta, doing the same thing with the same objects.

But it's not because we have the same mp3 players or the same cell phones in hand that we use them in the same way: teenagers in Paris, Tokyo and Beijing don't have the same usage of their mobile phones for instance. And globalization doesn't appear as the objective for teenagers: for them, life will be different, somewhere between local and global - but certainly more local than global.

Innovation and globalisation

Economy becomes more and more global, especially in high tech industry: there are no more local computer, television or cell phone manufacturers - only local assemblers, essentially working for retailers. All the leading companies - Sony, Samsung, Dell, Hewlett Packard, Nokia, etc. operate at a worldwide level. Consolidation goes really quickly, generally by external growth, leaders buying their challengers.

In most cases innovation appears as the main driver, as for the cell phone industry: cell phone industry is an extremely recent one where technicians establish worldwide standards in order to have the possibility to sell the same products in Paris, London or New-York. When there is no past, no history, it's quicker and easier for the whole industry to act in a same and common direction.

Television is an old high tech industry - more than half a century! Transition from black and white to color abolished some differences in Europe, mainly between French Secam and German Pal. But some divergence remained - for instance at a global level, with American NTSC. Today new transition to flat screens (LCD, PDP) and to High Definition (Mpeg 4) accelerates worldwide unification.

This recent phenomenon coincides with the development of digital. Clearly, digital speeds up innovation and globalization: 30 years ago, the first experiments of analog High Definition television failed pitifully, mainly because European and Japanese industries dashed into a wild and total competition, refusing any discussion. Remember the story

In 1972, NHK, the main Japanese TV channel, starts research on High Definition television, supported by the government; 1984: European Broadcasting Union gives its agreement to the standard D2 Mac Paquet, developed by France Telecom and Deutsche Telekom. 1986: Japan submits their HiVision to the Consultative Committee for International Radio, but not compatible with American NTSC.

European industries improve the development of D2 Mac Paquet with new HD MAC whereas Japanese HiVision is modified to a NTSC compatible version: Muse. But American government starts at the same time initial research on digital TV.

Millions $ will be invested and simply lost: In 1993, in front of the obvious failure of the standard, Philips and Thomson abandon D2 MAC, as do the Japanese the following year with Muse. It will be necessary to wait until 2006 and the football world cup in Europe for High Definition television to really begin.

Digital High Definition television. And thanks to a global standard based on Mpeg4. Digital drives innovation. And innovation drives innovation.

Nevertheless, even with digital, everything is not perfect and sometimes industry plays again and again the same old song - repeating the same mistakes: today DVD recorders multiply non compatible standards as did 30 years ago the VCR with JVC's VHS, Sony's Betamax and Philips' V2000.

However the story began very well: when the first devices arrived on the market in 1997 in France, it was under the best auspices: a single standard, the praises of the press, a promising future in spite of high prices. Only two shadows in the picture: an unofficial format called DivX, allowing burning a film onto a simple CD; and the Chinese preference for the competitor Video CD.

But DVD was not burnable. With the launch of the first burners, there started a new war between more or less compatible standards: consumers had to learn the differences between DVD +R, DVD + RW, DVD RAM and DVD-R /-RW! Good luck! And moderators heard again and again the same complaints during focus groups: "I remember what my father said about his old Betamax." A never ending story!

DVD size is too small to burn a film in High Definition quality: unluckily, if the next generation of burners will strongly improve quality, it will not correct the error of the previous one: the war is always so violent between Blu-ray and HD-DVD whereas Chinese want to launch their own standard, called EVD.

Nevertheless the dominating trend is industrial globalization, with the emergence of quasi-monopolies: how many brands in cell phones' industry, how many for computers? On this last market, globalization is more in the components: if there are a lot of local makers - essentially working for retailers - for the chip, you just have the choice between Intel and AMD.

Because high tech products are the same from one extremity of the planet to the other, high tech globalization is quickly on its way: citizens use the same machines, in the same way, there are less differences between a teenager in Tokyo and in Sao Paolo than between this teenager and his grandfather! Technology standardizes our world.

In this global game, some countries are more important than others: cell phones, LCD televisions, mp3 players, everything comes from Akihabara in Tokyo - as it was the case for luxury and perfumes in Paris. Japanese teenagers show the direction to a global young generation: tomorrow we'll use the products they buy today. Knowing the high tech future is easy: we see it in Akihabara streets!

Innovation is usage

That's what high tech managers think - or still try to think. But reality, as it appears more and more often, is completely different. In this paper our approach will be mainly based on observation of failures and successes, and then questioning people to explain these failures and successes and understand the evolutions of their day to day practices.

Failures are not exceptions, as for the DVD recorders: reality is more the opposite. Best case is certainly the 2.5 generation on cell phone market.

GSM was the second generation for cell phone, the transition from analog to digital, but limited to voice. UMTS will be the third generation with high speed communication for voice, data and images. Between GSM and UMTS, 2.5 generation was seen as a great improvement, optimizing immediately GSM possibilities with data and images.

Called i-mode in Japan, 2.5 generation became a great success: teenagers immediately bought i-mode cell phones - and used i-mode services: to discover the best restaurant in the street, to know the location of the latest fashionable disco, to send messages to their friends and reply to their parents, etc.

Called WAP in France (for Wireless Application Protocol), 2.5 generation was a disaster because in our country nobody wanted to carry in his pocket a mini computer to connect to Internet, to chat, to surf in the street: speaking with friends, or informing them of a delay was enough.

Technique is less important than usage: therefore WAP didn't succeed in Europe. Usage creates innovation - not engineers! The real innovation - and success - of the last five years is SMS. However SMS is not a technical innovation, neither a marketing innovation: no telecom operator believed in such a product. But the younger generation used them a lot: why?

Communication has completely changed since the beginning of the 21st century. Last century was marked by the transition from closed systems as in the little country villages to open systems as described by Palo Alto researchers; but now the younger generation is moving to less and less structured systems, without constraint at all. We'll come back on this point.

Consumer is the real creator of the products he uses... and sometimes it's surprising. Surprising for engineers when he gives sense to products in which they do not believe, as SMS: SMS is a very poor system of communication, especially when you can add pictures and data to the voice!

Surprising when users transform a product into another. Recently a French telecom operator experimented with mobile television on a cell phone: 185 persons received a nice terminal - the same size as a normal cell phone with a wonderful LCD screen.(*) The main purpose of the test was to discover where and when people would watch television : at the hairdresser's, at the office, waiting for somebody in a bar, etc.

Positive surprise: 84 % of the users think that the mobile telephone is well adapted to television. Quality of image and sound are approved by a large majority - respectively 98 % and 95 % of satisfied users. News appears as the most relevant program for telephone, ahead of music and weather reports.

But the real surprise comes from the place and time where people look at television on their mobile phone: 70% watch it by night... at home. For them, this kind of telephone is above all a second TV set! A nice tool to watch the end of a soccer game in bed, without annoying his spouse.

From a methodological point of view, it's no more possible to conduct consumer research as usual. Imagine: you write a nice concept board about mobile television; you moderate a qualitative group with early adopters - to be sure they will correctly understand the product - and you try to know when and where they will watch this television.

"In a coffee shop, waiting for a friend" or "In a bus, on my way to my office", etc. They will imagine all situations - the same situations engineers and marketers would imagine too. Mistake: in real world, they'll use it at home, in bed!

When you question somebody about usages he could have, he necessarily answers with his semantic memory - where concepts are built and analyzed; but his life leaves its own traces somewhere else: in his episodic memory. This is why nobody can really imagine what their future will be: nobody can anticipate something in episodic memory with semantic memory.

The only pertinent way to determine what is an innovation or not, is look at citizens' behavior: it's why we researchers today replace more and more in depth psychological interviews or focus groups with ethnology and pure observation. To understand what "connectivity" really means for consumers today, it's more relevant to visit them at home and see their practices and solutions.

It's what we did at Thomson last year. First we identified Young couples without children and Young parents as key targets for connecting products because as all young people, they are deeply involved in computing and nomadic digital products; and at the same time they start a new life where home and family become more and more central, including television.

They have a lot of music, photos, videos they like to share with friends: to understand how they achieve it, we sent an ethnologist with a cameraman to visit 12 homes and discuss this point with them: "Tell me how you show all your pictures to your friends?" The reality is amazing: they take a lot of photos... they never look at, neither alone, nor with someone else.

And when you ask them why they don't connect for instance their camera to the TV set, they reply: "I didn't know it was possible"! However we are questioning early adopters, high tech lovers but their behaviors are totally unexpected: they photograph all the time with their cameras, webcams or cell phones, select only a few pictures which they send to all the addresses they have in their mail box, then they forget them.

Another example: in 2004 we had to understand consumer concerns and expectations towards video recorders with built in hard disk drive. These kinds of products are like a VHS video recorder, but the tape is replaced by an hard disk drive: it facilitates recording (you can easily record hours of program); another advantage is the time shifting: you can "pause" a live program, answer a call, and start again thanks to a temporary recording on the hard disk.

We organize qualitative groups amongst early adopters and time shifting appears as the most appreciated feature: so fascinating! Then we gave a prototype to each attendee and questioned them after two weeks: time shifting was no more a useful feature because it breaks the domestic cohesion. Conversely they approved by a large majority the ease of recording: reality of use completely changes the perception and the destination of the product!

Global or not global

Two opposite movements cross our civilization, one bound to technological innovation, the other to usages engendered by this innovation: the point is to know if worldwide high tech products will necessarily generate global usages or if usages will nevertheless remain local and convert global innovative high tech products into local products. Which one is the most powerful trend?

If it's the first one, the whole planet will act tomorrow in the same way: we'll listen to the same music on the same mp3 players, watch the same movies on the same LCD TV sets, drive the same cars thanks to the same GPS Navigation System. Some differences will remain: British citizens will continue to drive on the left side and French ones on the right, and German movies will be translated - at least shown with subtitles - on Japanese television; but music is already global and Japanese teenagers listen to Franz Ferdinand or Placebo as do French or American ones: since Elvis Presley and the Beatles, rock and roll is universal and the language doesn't matter.

Actors eat the same food in movies we see on our TV sets when we are having dinner at home - and we choose the same meals in restaurants afterwards: Chinese or Italian food is no more exotic food - just a part of global food: there are so many Chinese or Italian restaurants in New-York, Paris or Sidney! That's what the great majority of futurologists think.

But if the second is the most powerful trend, we'll use in totally different ways the same global products: TV sets, cell phones, microwave ovens will be identical in Paris or in Tokyo - coming from the same factories in Korea or China - but we'll eat different meals, watch television in different ways, we'll call our friends for different reasons - not at 4 PM to have a cold dinner with a glass of beer at 6 PM in front of a baseball program!

Changes are quicker amongst young teenagers than mature citizens: you accept more easily the changes when you don't have too many anchored customs. Evaluate the power of these two movements - technology versus usage - through two symbolic products of this generation: mp3 players and mobile phones.

mp3 is certainly one of the most successful products of the last ten years: every teenager has one: thye can't live without one. All teenagers walk or cycle in the streets of Berlin, Seoul or Chicago with their player in their pocket, the earphones plugged into their ears, listening to the Artic Monkeys, Franz Ferdinand and/or Eminem: music and music players are global - and usages too.

Yes. And No! And conclusions are certainly more complex!

Music was global before mp3 and mp3 players: Mozart or Bach were played at the courts of all the European kingdoms, and then listened to by the whole European bourgeoisie; they were as popular at the opera in Paris as in Moscow. During the second part of the twentieth century, radio boosted the explosion of the rising music, but didn't create the love of the music amongst young generations.

The Beatles - according to the famous word from John Lennon - were more famous than Jesus Christ, not because radio broadcast their music but because their music expressed the rebellion of a whole generation to the consumer society; today Placebo or Franz Ferdinand are not famous because their songs are shared on Internet but their songs are shared on Internet because they are popular. Because, since Elvis Presley, rock and roll is (one of) the music of the young people!

And Eminem? Eminem is certainly the best example. Because Eminem is not rock and roll but rap: rap is another kind of rebellion and contestation, more spontaneous than rock and roll today. Rap exists in all suburbs over the world, at least in developed countries: rap is the music of the young and poor tribes in America, Eminem comes from Detroit. If Eminem is a well known star now, it's because he personifies a certain kind of revolt against establishment. A common revolution for all poor young people.

At the same time, rap is the link gathering a tribe living in the same suburb: viewed from this angle, rap is no more global, only micro-local. And the boys who listen to the same music on the same Boom Box (big portable audio system) as the boys of the next street don't share anything with them: they don't belong to the same tribe; they don't live in the same world - because their world stops at the corner of the street!

Technology supports musical globalization - but doesn't create it. It's not because young boys, all over the world have the same mp3 players or the same Boom Boxes that they share the same values, the same expectations. Reality is exactly the opposite: it's because music was global first that it became so rapidly global. Culture before high tech.

Same analyze for cell phones: in this case, technological innovation was 50 years late versus civilization! Or even more!

When western countries were more or less agricultural, villagers met every day on the main square of the village; when they had to discuss, they walked easily from one house to another. In the small towns, it was not really more difficult; even in Balzac's books, at the middle of the 19th century, Parisians walked continuously from one district to another: big cities remained human.

After the drift from the land, cities became suddenly too big: it was no longer possible to keep in touch with all ones friends or relatives. The telephone helped to fix appointments: nobody spends one hour in traffic jams if they are not sure to meet the people they want to speak to. It lacks flexibility but it's nevertheless a great progress.

Towns become bigger and bigger. Too quickly: we lose hours in buses or in traffic jams, and people regret the "good old times" when it was so easy to cross the village main street to find friends in a bar.

Cell phones give back this lost flexibility: wherever you are, you can reach your friends and decide how to meet them; if you are late in a traffic jam, you can call and inform your friends you are coming.

When you ask consumers about mobile phones, they don't answer: "What a great idea", but: "Why did nobody do it before?" Yes, why: in all countries, cities became too big during the last century, it was urgent to design something to help their inhabitants. Mobile phones became immediately global because the problem was common to all countries: all cities were too big, too inhuman.

Again, technological innovation doesn't create globalization but follows it.

Usage is local

Even if technological innovation doesn't create globalization, it could accelerate it? Technological innovation could standardize usages - convert local usages into global usages. However the opposite seems more evident: local usages, local ways of life slow down globalization. Cell phones appear again as the best example.

We wrote above that i-mode became immediately a great success in Japan while WAP was a total disaster in France. However cell phones were as successful in Japan as in France: why its upgrading diverged from one country to another? Because in spite of appearances, the Japanese and the French use telephones in different ways. Even if they live in gigantic cities, people from Paris and Tokyo are more different than similar.

As in Tokyo, Parisians needed tools to fix appointments with their friends at night and / or to advise them they would be late because of traffic jams, for instance - and it's why cell phones appeared as a great idea in Europe as well as in Asia.

A traffic jam is a good reason to call the person you are going to meet - even if it's dangerous to call whilst you are driving! There are so many traffic jams in Paris between 5.PM and 7.PM; after 8.PM driving becomes easier in our country... but not in Tokyo: there, traffic never stops before midnight.

Why? Because Japanese people don't live at home, like us, but outside, in streets, bars, restaurants - everywhere, but not at home. At least, men and young women: when they have children, mothers stay definitively at home, often with grandparents - Tokyo misses flats and flats are so small that often three generations live in the same place without real intimacy!

And men don't stay home, they prefer to spend the night in bars and restaurants with friends and colleagues. Japanese people don't live outside because their flats are not really convenient, it's more the opposite: they don't need bigger flats because they prefer to live somewhere else. It's not a recent phenomenon: even when there were no cars and no jams in Tokyo, Kyoto, Osaka or Kobe, men spent their time in bars. For them, bar-maids were as important as their own wife: Kafu in Tsuyu no atosaki (**) tells Kimie's story, barmaid in Ginza... in 1931!

Japanese life changed after the beginning of the last century - as French life did too. But not their fundamental bases: Japanese men return home very late - streets, bars, restaurants are their real homes! And they need Internet tools in their pocket exactly as we need Internet tools at home: they order a book at Amazon in a bar with their cell phone exactly as we do... only at home on our computer.

Young people modify their habits more quickly: in appearance, they are as nomadic in France as in America as in Japan. But even with an i-mode cell phone in their pocket, Parisian teens prefer to send and receive e-mails or order goods via Internet at home than outside: even having an i-mode cell, they keep their habits - high tech products don't change usages if there is no fundamental need.

Sometimes French teens need a quicker communication than e-mails - but very limited communication: just few words to fix an appointment or to say hello to a good friend - no answer needed in this last case. It's why French teens use SMS a lot: just a way to keep in touch to close friends, immediately and in an extremely easy way.

For many reasons usage will remain local. Television for instance: news on TF1 and France 2 - the two main French TV channels - starts at 8.PM every night and at 6.PM on BBC1 from Monday to Friday, and later during the weekend, in the UK. Even in front of a wonderful High Definition plasma screen, English people will continue to watch the news at 6.PM with a cold dinner while their French cousins will prefer a more substantial meal later.

Main television is sometimes in the kitchen in the UK - a bigger kitchen than in France - and in the basement in America, with a billiard table or other games: there is no problem of space, and people in the Midwest generally buy impressive projectors. In Japan, it's exactly the opposite and it explains the success of LCD television - and at first mobile television too! High tech innovation will not change historical usages... and the size of the flats too!

Tomorrow will be local

Even if high tech innovation will not change the size of the flats, maybe it could modify habits and usages which are not linked to fundamental patterns - as outdoor life in Japan. And certainly the young generation is the most capable of changing, they have no prejudices: we'll have to investigate the relationships between teenagers in France, to understand what the principal trends are and if these trends go towards globalization or not.

But before, let's consider the last trends on Internet, independently of any consideration for age or other socio-demographics. At its start Internet was designed as global: the best solution to improve scientific exchanges between researchers, between universities. Languages appeared as the main barrier to globalization - and today, encyclopedias as Wikipedia are available in many languages even if the concept is global.

Nevertheless the first trend was global - the myth of the Global Village. But today, the village becomes more and more local - as a real village. New communities, new sites arise everywhere, sites whose content is to bring together people of the same district: neighborhood networks to share with close people, from the same street, even the same house!

Recently in a popular district of Paris a new site appeared called: Peuplades - Tribes in English. The purpose was to help people living in the same area to meet and to develop communities: for baby sitting, for cultural trips, for wine lovers, etc. Last tribes: the musicians of the Epinettes, the data processing specialists in Montparnasse, the housewives from Place de Clichy, etc. The Epinettes, Montparnasse, Place de Clichy: as many small areas in Paris!

Peuplades.net is growing very fast. Other communities are born here and there, more and more often based on blogs. What is a blog? "Short for Web log, a blog is a Web page that serves as a publicly accessible personal journal for an individual. Typically updated daily, blogs often reflect the personality of the author", according to Wikipedia.org.

"Knitting wool passion" helps ladies who like to make their own clothes; "It's in Besançon" indicates the main events coming in this town; and on "Paris 16th", we learn that: "Psyreso association proposes next Tuesday at 8.PM a discussion about: how to loose weight thanks to psycho". Internet becomes more and more the best solution to solve local problems.

Teenagers love blogs too - they use them a lot: more than 4 millions teenagers' blogs on Skyblog in France; Skyblog is the Internet site of one of the most popular Rap radio stations in our country. And again, all these blogs appear local, immediately local: some do not exceed the limits of one college. But in reality these blogs are neither global, nor local: they are somewhere else, in another dimension.

Tomorrow will be somewhere else

Blogs illustrate one of the most important changes in our society, in terms of communication.

To understand what's going to happen tomorrow, we have to explain what happened yesterday when our civilization moved from a country life to an urban life: our society faces today a fundamental change, exactly as one century ago, when life and communication were only local - but moving to global.

Living in a village is living in a closed community: you must accept and respect many rules - non-written rules, imposed by tradition. For instance, a young lady can't stay alone with a man: if she does such behavior, she will be seen as a loose woman. If you live in a Christian village, you have to go to church on Sunday: if not, you will be quickly suspected of all wrong-doings, etc.

In a town, you belong to different communities: your family, your colleagues, your friends, etc. Rules are different from one group to another and your behavior can easily change too: a subjected husband at home will become a grumbling director at his office and a really charming friend in a pub. If this person becomes grumbling with his friends, he will lose them: to remain in this group, he has to accept its rules, as in the previous village. But he can move from one group to another, it's really easy in a bigger town.

It's why Palo Alto Group calls these communities open systems: as the closed system from the 19th century, strong rules link members of a same group - but everyone is free to change, to move from one group to another:

"Human interaction is described as a communication system, characterized by the properties of general systems: time as a variable, system-subsystem relations, wholeness, feedback, and equifinality. On-going inter-actional systems are seen as the natural focus for study of the long term pragmatic impact of communicational phenomena".(***)

If one member doesn't respect the rules of his group - his system - he will be quickly excluded from the group; if 10% or more of the members don't respect the rules, the group will explode.

Some rules are specific to each particular group, but some are common to all groups - as defined by Palo Alto: wholeness, feedback or equifinality, etc. A system not governed by these rules is not stable - it will be rapidly destroyed. For instance, a system where there is no feedback is either a dictatorship, or a non-system; just a juxtaposition of persons without communication.

Each citizen, in any country, belongs to several local groups - or systems: his neighbors, his family, his friends, etc. His job too, very often: he goes to his office, meets colleagues, clients, etc. But when you are senior manager in an international company, you have to manage employees in different countries, you have to take the plane to meet colleagues in America or Russia, etc. One of the different systems you belong to is global.

Between local and global, there's national, continental system: when you look at the news on TF1 or RAI 1, you become a member of a broad French or Italian community, even if the feed back is poor: you just have the right to turn off your set if you disagree, and now you can answer with SMS.

We all belong to different communities - systems according to Palo Alto definition. And some of these systems are local, others are national or global. And because communication is system, and system is communication - still according to Palo Alto definitions - we take part more and more in national and international communities: television and now Internet.

The first communities which arose on Internet respected Palo Alto rules: often a moderator helped members; and the one who didn't play the game could be excluded for the protection of the group itself. And the first blogs developed by American journalists respected Palo Alto rules too, reporting the same news as the traditional media, but with another analysis, another point of view.

The main difference between blogs and mass media was the quality of feed-back: on a blog, you can react, discuss, and develop contradictory opinions. A journalist blog in America, or now in Paris, is a national or multinational system, respecting Palo Alto rules.

The teenagers' blogs are different: they don't respect any rules. First there is no real feed-back: everyone is invited, everyone can do what they want - even tags, modify the existing blog. Blog is an object which doesn't really belong to its creator.

These blogs don't respect the main property of general systems: wholeness. Blogs are the zero degree of community - as SMS are the zero degree of communication: the borders are not known, even by its first designer. It's not like a body - the best image is certainly the synopsis: something "long-winded", the possibility for "people" to establish "contact" and stay in touch. Temporarily.

Blogs are not the only or the first system to not respect Palo Alto rules: for instance flash mobs are similar: "A flash mob is a group of people who assemble suddenly in a public place, do something unusual for a brief period of time, and then quickly disperse. They are usually organized with the help of the Internet or other digital communications networks", according to Wikipedia. (****)

Teenagers' blogs or flash mobs are certainly not global; they are not local too, they are somewhere else. But they are more local than global... or more precisely non-global: there is no worldwide ambition in these new communication tools - just the possibility to express, react, share.

At the end of the 19th century our civilization moves from closed systems to open systems: people stood at the connection of different communities - some local, some national, some global. Our civilization moved from traditional villages to global villages - with "s". But this evolution is only possible if open systems are stable - when they are systems: globalization needs stability.

Today in the 21st century, emerging trends are less and less stable communities - more temporary systems linked to opportunities. Teenagers are looking for more humanity - and humanity is local. Therefore globalization will mark time. Certainly "some globalization" is irreversible but it's no more the major trend. Local networking and communication will lead society during this century.

Paper to be published in : Innovative technology, Cambridge Scholars Press - 2006

Thank you to Mike Davison for his support.
* http://www.institutionnel.bouyguestelecom.fr
** Kafu: Tsuyu no atosaki, Hisamitsu Nagai, 1931
*** Paul Watzlawick and al. - Pragmatics of Human Communication: A Study of Interactional Patterns, Pathologies, and Paradoxes, Norton & Company, 1967

**** http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flash_mob